Moderates, by contrast, are less certain about which nominee better represents their opinions and interests and thus more likely to waver. When asked whether it really matters who wins, somewhat matters, or doesn’t really matter, 82 percent of all voters and 92 percent of decided voters said they believe it matters, but just 66 percent of swing voters said they believe it really matters. Common examples of swing voters include "Reagan Democrats" (Democrats who voted for Republican Ronald Reagan in the 1980s) and "Clinton Conservatives" (Republicans who voted for Bill Clinton). This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

Just Who Are These Undecided Voters, Anyway. While 7 percent of poll respondents identified as African-American, only 2 percent of swing voters were African-American. Such votes are usually sought after in election campaigns, since they can play a big role in determining the outcome. That means you are free to republish our content both online and in print, and we encourage you to do so via the “republish this article” button. This article first appeared on Journalist's Resource and is republished here under a Creative Commons license.

"Swing Vote" redirects here. For other uses, see, Learn how and when to remove this template message, "Swing Voters In Swing States Hold Balance In 2016", "US Elections: Who are the swing voters? The two surveys interviewed 2,402 adults (2,030 registered voters), reached on both landlines and cell phones by live interviewers. If there is one group that is most often described as a swing constituency in media stories, it is women.

While 72 percent of voters who are 65 years of age or older have decided for sure, just 47 percent of 18-29-year-olds have decided.

The Democratic base is slightly larger than the Republican base and, at least since President Trump took office, Democrats have had an intensity advantage of varying degrees over the GOP.
Definition and Measurement”, “The Disappearing — but Still Important — Swing Voter,”, Creative Commons Attribution-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

Voters were asked whether they would definitely or probably vote for President Trump next year, or definitely or probably vote for the Democratic candidate. Twice as many swing voters said they pay only a little attention or none at all—17 percent, compared with just 8 percent of those who are decided.

As a general rule, political scientists find that undecided voters are less involved in politics, less informed on issues, less attentive to news — and much harder to reach through media streams. In campaign 2012, of course, the topic became ripe for satire, as Saturday Night Live demonstrated. Define undecided. Since they pay less attention than other voters and are less likely to believe that the outcome is important, you just have to wonder how many of these undecided will really vote. They are sometimes referred to as undecideds, undecided voters, or floating voter.

... voters still seem to be undecided about that candidate's fitness for the office of president. Some recent pieces of journalistic analysis provide insights related to this subject: Ben White’s “Meet the Undecided Voter,” at Politico and Adam Davidson’s “Vote Obamney!” in The New York Times Magazine.. A 2008 academic analysis of the issue, “What Exactly Is a Swing Voter?Definition and Measurement” (PDF) — part of the book The Swing Voter in American Politics …

RT @JessicaTaylor: Heading on #MTPDaily momentarily to talk with @chucktodd about our final @CookPolitical Senate ratings and what to watch…, The Watergate, 600 New Hampshire Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20037 (202) 739-8525 info@cookpolitical.com. In a two-party system, those who become disillusioned with their once-favored party are more likely to vote third-party or abstain than cross over. While the swing voter is ostensibly the target of most political activity during elections, another factor is the success of each party in rallying its core support. Research to help audiences weigh the risks, Election Beat 2020: Preventing an election night nightmare, Voter intimidation at the polls and workplace political coercion: 4 articles to know, Election Beat 2020: Polls, polls and more polls — navigating the numbers, 10 tips + 4 story ideas for journalists covering the 2020 presidential election.
Undecided definition is - not having made a decision. In American politics, many centrists, liberal Republicans, and conservative Democrats are considered "swing voters" since their voting patterns cannot be predicted with certainty. This suggests that lesbian and bisexual women may be more likely swing voters, at least over time, if not necessarily for any given election. Many vote in presidential election years but not in lower-profile mid-term elections; and many will, if asked, describe themselves as independent voters.

The National Institute for Health Care Management (NIHCM) Foundation. For example, on a court of seven judges, of which three are committed to each side of a case, the seventh judge may be seen as single-handedly deciding the case. "[4] In the 2016 presidential election, people who identified as gay, lesbian, bisexual or transgender cast 78 percent of their votes for the Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton. When asked, “How much attention do you normally pay to what is going on in national government and politics?” 57 percent of voters and 68 percent of decided voters said they pay a lot of attention, but only 39 percent of swing voters said so. A swing vote is a vote that is seen as potentially going to any of a number of candidates in an election, or, in a two-party system, may go to either of the two dominant political parties.

(See Katharine Q. Seelye’s piece in the New York Times on female swing voters.) This is double the size of the normal individual national polls we see, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. Every four years, members of both parties debate which factor is more important—turning out their partisans or appealing to the middle. Ideologically speaking, 56 percent of all swing voters identify themselves as moderates, compared to 38 percent of all voters. Smaller groups that use voting to decide matters, such as chambers of parliament and supreme courts, can also have swing voters.

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